The first round of the 2007 NCAA Men's College Basketball Tournament is complete and now we've narrowed the field of 65 down to 32, and by weekend's end will have it down to the Sweet 16. Seeds -1-5 went 20-0 in the opening round and higher seeds overall went 27-5. In fact, VCU and Winthrop were the only double-digit seeds to advance. This also marks the first year since 1995 that the second round of the tournament will be without Coack K, Bobby Knight and Lute Olson.
Here's an outlook of how I see the second round games for Saturday playing out:
#9 Xavier vs. #1 Ohio State - 1:10 PM
It's the 'Battle of Ohio.' The intrigue with this game obviously is that Ohio St. Head Coach Thad Matta once was the Head Coach at Xavier when he guided the Musketeers to an Elite Eight appearance in 2004. Then the Associate Head Coach and assistant was Sean Miller, now the Head Coach of Xavier. For OSU, we know where their bread is buttered and that's with the big man Greg Oden, a phenomenal force in the middle for the Buckeyes who averages one block shot per eight times up the floor. Fellow freshman Mike Conley runs their offense very smoothly from the point guard position. Xavier got a great performance from point guard Drew Lavender, a transfer from Oklahoma, down the stretch in their first round game against BYU. Justin Doellman also gave them 23 points. But the key to the game could be Stanley Burrell, who didn't have a single field goal vs. BYU. They need Burrell to return to his normal production that he gave them during the regular season. Pick: Ohio St. wins it comfortably by about 12.
#5 Butler vs. #4 Maryland - 3:20 PM
Gary Williams' Terps had some trouble at times with Davidson in their first round game as the Wildcats' fabulous freshman torched them for 30 points - most of which came in the first half. The guy who gave Maryland a spark off the bench was Bambale Osby; he finished with 11 points and 6 rebounds as Ekene Ibekwe was saddled with foul trouble. Maryland wants to get up and down the floor at a faster pace than Butler, but at the same time they want to impose their superior size with Ibekwe, Osby and James Gist on the Bulldogs. Butler got it done with defense against Old Dominion, limiting the Monarchs to 46 points and going on a 17-0 run in the second half to seize control of the game. It'll be highly critical that Maryland guards Mike Jones and D.J. Strawberry as well as freshman Greivis Vazquez are on shooting the basketball because we know Butler won't shy away from taking the 3's. The Bulldogs hit on 9-of-24 three-point attempts, including 7-for-13 in the second half on Thursday afternoon. A.J. Graves, Pete Campbell and Mike Green help make up for Butler's lack of great size and post play. Pick: Butler by 3 because they'll make enough 3's.
#6 Louisville vs. #3 Texas A&M - 3:40 PM
In my opinion, this is the best second round matchup on the board for Saturday. Rick Pitino's Cardinals put on a clinic against Stanford, taking them out of the game from the get-go. While Texas A&M struggled a bit more vs. Penn, they are a prime contender to reach the Final Four as the Aggies are in the Top 5 nationally in field goal percentage, defensive field goal percentage and three-point shooting percentage. Point guard Acie Law IV is a Player of the Year candidate for them who performs at his best in crunch time. Since Juan Palacios isn't at full strength, Louisville will need for David Padgett and 6-foot-9 freshman Derrick Caracter to be on their A-game because PG Edgar Sosa won't have a head-to-head edge vs. Law. The supporting cast of Joseph Jones, Josh Carter, Dominique Kirk and Antanas Kavaliauskas can push the Aggies over the top. Where Louisville has an advantage however is playing only 70 miles from home in Lexington. Pick: Texas A&M by 2 in a thriller.
#6 Vanderbilt vs. #3 Washington State - 5:40 PM
After absolutely clobbering George Washington in the opening round game because they shot 10-of-18 from three-point land in the first half, Vanderbilt finds themselves in an interesting match with an upstart Washington State team. Tony Bennett, the front-runner for Natl. Coach of the Year, saw his Cougars go from being predicted to finish last in the Pac-10 in the preseason to earning a #3 seed and overcoming a half-time deficit to defeat Oral Roberts. The bigget challenge for Wash. St. in this game will be slowing down the outstanding perimeter shooting attack of the Commodores, keyed by Derrick Byars and Shan Foster. Bennett's crew counters with Derrick Low, Kyle Weaver, Ivory Clark (19Pts. 8-8FT in the opening round) and Daven Harmeling - a possible x-factor from the outside. The problem Kevin Stallings' Vandy team might run into is if their shooting from beyond the arc is off, what do they turn to? Hopefully its defense, which forced GW into 20 turnovers and a season-low 44 points. Pick: Vandy pulls away late and wins it by 7.
#7 Boston College vs. #2 Georgetown - 5:45 PM
A classic, old matchup of former Big East dance partners has the makings to be a great game to watch -- even if the score finishes up in the 50's. BC is led by All-American candidate Jared Dudley, someone who scored 112 points in the last NCAA Tournament. Perimeter weapons Sean Marshall and guard Tyrese Rice, off a 26-point effort in the first round opposite Texas Tech, complement him very well. Both Rice and Dudley are capable of going off for close to or more than thirty in a game. Meanwhile, the Georgetown Hoyas coached by John Thompson III have two premier weapons in the paint with 7-foot center Roy Hibbert and power forward Jeff Green, the Big East Player of the Year. Hibbert had 10 points, 13 rebounds and three blocked shots in the 80-55 win over Belmont on Thursday. A difference maker for this Georgetown team, which many have said at different times of the season that their Achilees Heel will be suspect guard play, is Jessie Sapp. He had 20 points on 8-of-10 shooting two days ago. BC won't have the type of edge on the glass like they did in their last game, making their interior defense that much more important, and without Sean Williams controlling the middle and blocking shots it'll make pulling the upset that much harder. Pick: Hoyas by 10.
#11 Virginia Commonwealth vs. #3 Pittsburgh - 5:50 PM
Cool, calm, collective, clutch and poise. Whatever you want to call him, we know that Eric Maynor, the sophomore star-in-the-making guard for VCU is one tough cookie. Not only did he make three big baskets in the final two minutes to eliminate Duke from the NCAA Tournament, he also scored nine straight points and made two huge steals in his team's come-from-behind win over George Mason in the CAA Tournament Championship game. Maynor is an excellent driver, has great recognition and draws contact exceedingly well, too. VCU is going to play fast-and-loose behind him and fellow guards B.A. Walker and Jesse Pellot-Rosa. Wil Fameni and Mike Anderson must make an impact down low as well because Aaron Gray is the focal point of the Pitt Panthers and in order to neutralize him they'll need to those guys to make solid contributions. It will be interesting to see whether or not Pitt plays small or not if the tempo begins to favor the Rams. Pitt's defense will be a tough nut for Anthony Grant's VCU team to crack and Jamie Dixon's squad could put an end to the Rams' run. Pick: Pittsburgh by 5.
#7 Indiana vs. #2 UCLA - 8:10 PM
Kelvin Sampson's Hoosiers had little trouble in the second half with upset-minded Gonzaga in the tournament's opening round. UCLA is one of the few teams in the country -- if not the only team in the nation -- that can say they have a set of All-American starting guards with Arron Afflalo and Darren Collison. That combo combined for 36 points with Afflalo grabbing eight rebounds and Collison dishing out eight assists as the Bruins beat Weber State by 28. For Indiana to have any chance of winning, it's crucial that they knock down their open three-point looks and get to the free-throw line enough to put a few of UCLA's frontline players in foul trouble. D.J. White has the ability to do that on the inside as the 250-pound forward is tough to handle off a 16-point, 10-rebound double-double performance in the first game. Indiana did hit 15-of-16 free-throws so they are pretty good when they get to the line, but will UCLA let them live there? Probably not. Pick: UCLA by 21.
#9 Michigan State vs. #1 North Carolina - 8:15 PM
Two years ago the Michigan State Spartans and North Carolina Tar Heels met the Final Four where Roy Williams' UNC team handled Tom Izzo's MSU squad, leading to them beating Illinois in the 2005 National Championship. Guard Drew Neitzel for Michigan St. appears to me to be the most improved player in America from last season to this year. He has stepped up big for them numerous times this year, including in a loss to Ohio St. where he outscored the Buckeyes by himself in the second half. Freshman Raymar Morgan had 14 points and eight rebounds as the Spartans beat Marquette 61-49; Izzo hopes to get a similar type of game from him vs. that UNC front-line that features masked marvel Tyler Hansbrough and freshman Brandan Wright, a possible lottery pick if he chooses to enter the draft early. In the backcourt, the Tar Heels have some talent there too with Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington. Senior Reyshawn Terry could give Michigan St. some problems. One thing is for sure in this game and that is that, although I feel MSU will play them tough, there's no way Micigan St. is holding UNC without a point until the 10:18 mark like they did vs. Marquette. Pick: UNC By 12.
*** Check back Sunday morning for my picks on those second round matchups! ***
