Monday, April 2, 2007 - Previewing NCAA Tournament College Basketball Natl. Championship Game

Monday Night:  Ohio State vs. Florida

Let's break down this game matchup-for-matchup, then offering who has the 'edge' and at the end I'll state my prediction for this Championship bought.

Backcourt:  Throughout this whole NCAA Tournament with big man Greg Oden in foul trouble a good deal it has been the Buckeyes' backcourt that has stepped up to the challenge.  Freshman Mike Conley, Jr. might be their most impressive guard as the quick penetrator runs the offense smoothly showing great poise, patience, and a calm demeanor the entire time.  Speaking of clutch performers, has there been a better one than OSU's Ron Lewis?  A confident big shot maker, Lewis relishes the opportunity of shooting the ball with the game on the line, keeping his team alive when he drilled a game-tying three-pointer that sent the game into overtime against Xavier.  Throw in Jamar Butler and Daequan Cook and they have four solid options there.  Lee Humphrey and Taurean Green have been lighting it up from downtown all tournament long, particulaly Humphrey who caught fire last year against George Mason in the Natl. Semifinal and did it again in the second half of the Natl. Semifinal vs. UCLA.  But the problem with Green and Humphrey may be in the quickness department as the Buckeyes' are quicker.  Also, Green struggled quite a bit with Darren Collison of the Bruins and Conley can give him trouble.  Edge:  Buckeyes

Frontcourt:  If Oden gets in foul trouble then OSU could be toast.  Last year Florida's frontline intimidated, rejecting shots - six blocks by Joakim Noah in last year's National Championship win - and they are very active on the boards.  Together, Noah and Al Horford combined for 28 rebounds on Saturday night against UCLA.  Then small forward Corey Brewer gives them length, scoring, versatility - all that you want out of a '3' man.  Six-foot-7 senior forward Ivan Harris of OSU needs to really play a big game against Horford, which could be a game-deciding matchup.  OSU will throw out Othello Hunter and Matt Terwilliger if Oden gets in foul trouble, but they'd rather not have to do that... and let him go to work like he did in the second half vs. Georgetown.  The guy who really came up in a huge way on Saturday night against UCLA was Chris Richard for Florida.  Richard had 14 of his 16 points during the second half and off the bench has been a dependable sixth man all season long.  Ohio St. has the best big man in Oden, but Florida has more quantity with 3 very good frontcourt starters, length, athleticsm, skilled big guys and a player off the bench who they won't miss a beat with if someone gets in foul trouble.  Edge:  Gators   

Bench:  Florida really only goes six deep, although Odell Hodge can give them some minutes if need be.  OSU goes nine deep with David Lighty, Terwilliger, Hunter and Cook.  Therefore... Edge:  Buckeyes

Coaching:  Call me crazy, but I'm going to give the edge to Ohio St. because of the distraction of this maybe, possibly being the final game for Billy Donovan as the Head Coach of Florida with the 'rumors' out there that he'll be the next Head Coach at Kentucky.  Donovan certainly can pass for being the top Head Coach in the sport at the moment, but I like how Thad Matta has gotten his team to believe they’re not a one-man group (more than Oden), used his bench nicely and not let them go in them go away from Oden (something I felt might be a problem).  Add to that OSU impressively seldom ever panics with a young team when facing a large deficit – and I think it speaks even larger to the job Matta is doing in Columbus. 

Intangibles:  This advantage has to go to the Gators.  They're the defending Champs, more experienced than Ohio St. and they beat the Buckeyes' brains in back in December, 86-60 (although Oden wasn't at full strength and OSU was still young and finding themselves).  Plus throw in the fact that some of these Gators - such as Brewer, Horford and Noah - came back for one reason and one reason alone - to do something special with a chance to repeat.  Edge:  Gators

Pick:  Ohio State by 3 in what some will consider a mild upset.  Conley and Lewis are clutch in crunch time, while Oden shows America why he deserves to be the #1 overall pick in next June's NBA Draft.