After a few days to rest and catch our breath from the first two rounds of NCAA Tournament action, basketball returns Thursday night with four Sweet 16 matchups. Both today and tomorrow I'll be offering up my picks... so far 12 of the 16 teams left I had making it this far in my original bracket. Enough small talk, let's breakdown the games...
#3 Xavier v. #7 West Virginia – 7:10PM – In their second round tournament win over Duke, Bob Huggins’ Mountaineers of West Virginia really crashed the boards well and had a decisive rebounding advantage. However, they did commit 17 turnovers and they must reduce that total because Xavier will do a better job of capitalizing off mistakes. Free-throws are a major plus for the Musketeers; they are 53-for-66 from the foul line through two tournament games, including 21-of-22 in their second half comeback win over Georgia in the opening round of the tourney. Drew Lavender gives them energy and is a playmaker at the floor general position despite being small. He reminds me a little of Damon Stoudamire. So many different players can hurt you for Xavier; six players are averaging 9.8 points per game and Sean Miller’s team is 22-0 when four guys reach double-figures. Joe Alexander, Alex Ruoff and backup point guard Joe Mazzulla (13Pts. 11Reb. 8Ast. vs. Duke) all can stroke it from the perimeter, but if the shots aren’t falling they could be in trouble. Pick: Xavier by 3
#1 North Carolina v. #4 Washington State – 7:27PM – These two have very contrasting styles of play. North Carolina wants to run and gun as they scored 100+ points in each of their first two NCAA Tournament games. Meanwhile, Washington State wants to play at a slower speed and they’re more defensive-minded. The Cougars held Notre Dame to 41 points in the second round – 26 below their previous season-low – and limited Winthrop 40 points total and just 11 in the second half. Their defense has been exceptional thus far, whereas no team in America has more offensive firepower than UNC. One has to give in this game. Keep an eye on Aron Baynes for the Cougars; he is averaging 12.5PPG and 9.5RPG in the tourney and had 19 points on 9-of-9 shooting and grabbed eight boards vs. Winthrop. Rebounding will be a key and UNC had the top rebounding margin in the country coming into postseason play. Off the bench, Deon Thompson and Alex Stephenson rather quietly are 24-for-27 from the field in the tourney, so as long as they two are contributing like that it’ll be hard to defeat the Tar Heels. Tempo is clearly going to determine the outcome. While I think WSU will make this a game and stay close by half-time, the Tar Heels have too much talent and speed that’ll enable them to pull away in the closing minutes. Pick: UNC by 12
#1 UCLA v. #12 Western Kentucky – 9:40PM – Ben Howland’s Bruins have had a lot of close calls all year long and another came in the second round of the NCAA Tournament against Texas A&M where they dodged a major bullet. The inside-outside duo of freshman big man Kevin Love and senior point guard Darren Collison proved to be the difference as they overcame a deficit for much of the game to advance. Not only did Love and Collison score 20 of UCLA’s first 24 points, but each scored a pair of clutch baskets down the stretch. For the Hilltoppers of Western Kentucky, they are led by Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year Courtney Lee and Tyrone Brazelton, who poured in 33 points and had five assists against Drake. Western Kentucky blew double-digit leads in the tournament to both Drake, who they beat in overtime on Ty Rogers’ three-pointer at the buzzer, and San Diego. Even if they jump out in front in the early going, I’m not confident in them holding a lead. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Russell Westbrook and/or Josh Shipp, both of whom were scoreless for most of the game vs. Texas A&M, step up for a 15-20 point performance with so much of the defensive focus by the Hilltoppers on Love and Collison. Pick: UCLA by 20
#2 Tennessee v. #3 Louisville – 9:57PM – No matchup in the Sweet 16 intrigues me personally more than this one between Rick Pitino’s Louisville Cardinals and Bruce Pearl’s Tennessee Volunteers. Versatility is what Louisville brings to the table. They have several different options to go to offensively and they have players that are able to play multiple positions. Earl Clark off the bench has been the Cards’ top scorer this postseason. While Louisville has enjoyed blowout wins over Boise State and Oklahoma in the NCAA Tournament, things haven’t been so easy for Tennessee. The Vols had a bit of a struggle with #15 seeded American and then held off Butler in overtime. There’s concern about the health of guard Chris Lofton, their most dynamic offensive player, plus Tennessee committed 20 turnovers their last time out. Handling Louisville’s pressure defense definitely will be a tough challenge. In the tournament, the Cards are also 21-for-41 from beyond the arc, so when they are shooting like that it makes them extremely hard to beat. Pick: Louisville by 4
*** Stay tuned to Hatfield Sports – www.matthewhatfield.com – and this blog for more on the NCAA Tournament!